Decoding the Ukraine WAR Through Game Theory - How china Changed the Game

The Russia-Ukraine-US crisis is a complex and multi-player game that has been ongoing since 2014. It is a classic example of a strategic interaction between two or more actors, each trying to maximize their payoff while anticipating the actions of others. Game theory provides a powerful tool to analyze the crisis, which can be modeled as a variation of the classic game of chicken, where two drivers are heading towards each other and the first to swerve loses. In this case, the two main players, Russia and the US, are trying to establish dominance over Ukraine without triggering a full-scale war.

From a game theory perspective, both Russia and the US are playing a mixed strategy, meaning they are taking multiple actions with varying probabilities to keep the other side guessing. Both sides are also using signaling strategies to communicate their intentions and assess the other side's resolve. Russia's strategy appears to be one of brinksmanship, using military and economic pressure to achieve its objectives while denying any involvement in the conflict. Its main goal is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, as this would be seen as a direct threat to Russia's security interests. The US, on the other hand, has been supporting Ukraine diplomatically and economically while warning Russia of the consequences of further aggression. It has also been increasing its military presence in the region and working to strengthen its alliances with other NATO countries.

Let's have a look now on 2 possible scenarios.

Scenarion 1 (Economic Sanctions work)

Round 1: Both Russia and the US try to cooperate.

Round 2: Russia decides to defect and annexes Crimea. The US cooperates, hoping to avoid a larger conflict.

Round 3: The US and its allies impose economic sanctions on Russia, hoping to pressure them into reversing their annexation of Crimea. 

Round 4: Russia continues to defect, and begins supporting separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine. The US continues to cooperate, hoping to avoid a larger conflict.

Round 5: The US and its allies increase the economic sanctions on Russia, hoping to further pressure them into changing their behavior. 

Round 6: Russia increases its support for the separatist rebels, sending troops and military equipment into eastern Ukraine.

Round 7: The US provides military aid to Ukraine, signaling its support for the government in Kiev. 

Round 8: Russia continues to support the separatist rebels, and shoots down a drone plane over Baltic. The US expresses outrage, but continues to cooperate.

Round 9: The US increases its military presence in Eastern Europe, sending troops and equipment to Poland and the Baltic states.

Round 10: Russia continues to defect. Finald and Sweden apply to join the Nato alliance. 

Round 11: Russia continues to support the separatist rebels, and annexes more territory in eastern Ukraine. 

Round 12: The US imposes more economic sanctions on Russia, hoping to further pressure them into changing their behavior. Finland and Sweden join Nato.

Round 13: Russia begins to feel the economic impact of the US sanctions, and signals a willingness to negotiate. 

Round 14: The US agrees to lift some of the economic sanctions in exchange for Russia's agreement to withdraw its troops and support for the separatist rebels. Russia agrees, and tensions ease.

Round 15: Russia begins to withdraw its troops and support from the separatist rebels, and the situation in Ukraine stabilizes. 

Round 16: Both Russia and the US continue to cooperate, and a lasting peace is achieved in Ukraine.

Scenarion 2 (Economic Sanctions don't work)

In this modified scenario, we assume that China provides financial aid to Russia by buying oil and gas from them, and also strengthens their multilateral support. This changes the balance of power and increases Russia's leverage in the conflict with the US over Ukraine.

Round 1: Both Russia and the US try to cooperate.

Round 2: Russia decides to defect and annexes Crimea. The US cooperates, hoping to avoid a larger conflict.

Round 3: The US and its allies impose economic sanctions on Russia, hoping to pressure them into reversing their annexation of Crimea. 

Round 4: Russia continues to defect, and begins supporting separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine. The US continues to cooperate, hoping to avoid a larger conflict.

Round 5: The US and its allies increase the economic sanctions on Russia, hoping to further pressure them into changing their behavior. 

Round 6: Russia continues to defect and continues supporting more separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine. China offers financial aid to Russia, buying oil and gas from them, and signals its support for Russia's actions in Ukraine. 

Round 7: The US provides military aid to Ukraine, signaling its support for the government in Kiev. 

Round 8: Russia continues to receive financial aid from China, and the two countries deepen their strategic partnership.China increases its support for Russia, providing military aid and sending troops to the border with Russia. 

Round 9: The US increases its military aid to Ukraine, signaling its commitment to the government in Kiev. Finald and Sweden apply to join the Nato alliance. 

Round 10: Russia and China continue to defect.Russia and China hold joint military exercises in the region, signaling their joint commitment to their interests in Ukraine. The US expresses outrage, but continues to cooperate.

Round 11: The US increases its military presence in Eastern Europe, sending troops and equipment to Poland and the Baltic states. 

Round 12: Russia and China continue to support the separatist rebels, and the situation in Ukraine remains unstable.

Round 13: Finland and Sweden join the Nato Alliance. Russia and China continue to defect.

Round 14: Russia and China refuse to negotiate with the US and their allies, and instead seek to increase their strategic partnership in the region. 

Round 15: The US and their allies increase their military presence in Eastern Europe, sending more troops and equipment to Ukraine and the Baltic states. 

Round 16: Russia and China continue to defect, and the conflict over Ukraine remains unresolved. The only solution is to split the country into 2 parts, East Ukraine and West Ukraine. If the split were to be accepted by all parties as a fair and peaceful solution to the conflict, it could potentially lead to a de-escalation of tensions and an end to the conflict.

In this modified scenario, China's support for Russia gives them a stronger position in the conflict with the US over Ukraine and the impact of the US sanctions became ineffective.

The crisis in Ukraine has the potential to bring about a lasting peace if economic sanctions succeed in changing Russia's behavior. However, if sanctions fail, the situation could escalate into a devastating conflict with consequences for the whole world. China's role in the crisis cannot be ignored, as it refused to condemn Russia's invasion, abstained from UN Security Council votes, and provided key support to Russia.

China's strategy highlights the complex nature of international relations and the impact of major players' actions on global security. China's reluctance to condemn Russia's actions in Ukraine raises questions about its ambitions to challenge the West and set up a new world order.

As China's influence on the global stage continues to grow, it is crucial for policymakers to consider the potential implications of China's and other major players' actions on regional and international security. The Ukraine crisis serves as a reminder that the actions of one major player can have significant implications for others, and that cooperation and collaboration are necessary to ensure stability and peace in the world.